A case study of a "Dragon-King”: The 1999 Venezuelan catastrophe

We describe a failure of standard extremal models to account for a catastrophic rainfall event in the coastal regions of Venezuela on 14-16 December 1999, due both to inaccurate tail modelling and to an inadequate treatment of clusters of rare events. We investigate this failure, using a Dirichlet mixture model to approximate a form of moving maximum process that should provide accurate models for wide classes of extremal behaviour. This so-called M3-Dirichlet model may be fitted using an EM algorithm, and provides a reasonable explanation for the properties of the data, in terms of a seasonally-varying mixture of types of extreme rainfall cluster

Investigating light curve modulation via kernel smoothing. II. New additional modes in single-mode OGLE classical Cepheids

Detailed knowledge of the variability of classical Cepheids, in particular their modulations and mode composition, provides crucial insight into stellar structure and pulsation. However, tiny modulations of the dominant radial-mode pulsation were recently found to be very frequent, possibly ubiquitous in Cepheids, which makes secondary modes difficult to detect and analyse, since these modulations can easily mask the potentially weak secondary modes. The aim of this study is to re-investigate the secondary mode content in the sample of OGLE-III and -IV single-mode classical Cepheids using kernel regression with adaptive kernel width for pre-whitening, instead of using a constant-parameter model. This leads to a more precise removal of the modulated dominant pulsation, and enables a more complete survey of secondary modes with frequencies outside a narrow range around the primary. Our analysis reveals that significant secondary modes occur more frequently among first overtone Cepheids than previously thought. The mode composition appears significantly different in the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds, suggesting a possible dependence on chemical composition. In addition to the formerly identified non-radial mode at $P_2 \approx 0.6\ldots 0.65 P_1$ (0.62-mode), and a cluster of modes with near-primary frequency, we find two more candidate non-radial modes. One is a numerous group of secondary modes with $P_2 \approx 1.25 P_1$, which may represent the fundamental of the 0.62-mode, supposed to be the first harmonic of an $l \in \{7,8, 9\}$ non-radial mode. The other new mode is at $P_2 \approx 1.46 P_1$, possibly analogous to a similar, rare mode recently discovered among first overtone RR Lyrae stars.Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, 4 table

Search for high-amplitude Delta Scuti and RR Lyrae stars in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 using principal component analysis

We propose a robust principal component analysis (PCA) framework for the exploitation of multi-band photometric measurements in large surveys. Period search results are improved using the time series of the first principal component due to its optimized signal-to-noise ratio.The presence of correlated excess variations in the multivariate time series enables the detection of weaker variability. Furthermore, the direction of the largest variance differs for certain types of variable stars. This can be used as an efficient attribute for classification. The application of the method to a subsample of Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 data yielded 132 high-amplitude Delta Scuti variables. We found also 129 new RR Lyrae variables, complementary to the catalogue of Sesar et al., 2010, extending the halo area mapped by Stripe 82 RR Lyrae stars towards the Galactic bulge. The sample comprises also 25 multiperiodic or Blazhko RR Lyrae stars.Comment: 23 pages, 17 figure

Gaia eclipsing binary and multiple systems. Two-Gaussian models applied to OGLE-III eclipsing binary light curves in the Large Magellanic Cloud

The advent of large scale multi-epoch surveys raises the need for automated light curve (LC) processing. This is particularly true for eclipsing binaries (EBs), which form one of the most populated types of variable objects. The Gaia mission, launched at the end of 2013, is expected to detect of the order of few million EBs over a 5-year mission. We present an automated procedure to characterize EBs based on the geometric morphology of their LCs with two aims: first to study an ensemble of EBs on a statistical ground without the need to model the binary system, and second to enable the automated identification of EBs that display atypical LCs. We model the folded LC geometry of EBs using up to two Gaussian functions for the eclipses and a cosine function for any ellipsoidal-like variability that may be present between the eclipses. The procedure is applied to the OGLE-III data set of EBs in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) as a proof of concept. The bayesian information criterion is used to select the best model among models containing various combinations of those components, as well as to estimate the significance of the components. Based on the two-Gaussian models, EBs with atypical LC geometries are successfully identified in two diagrams, using the Abbe values of the original and residual folded LCs, and the reduced $\chi^2$. Cleaning the data set from the atypical cases and further filtering out LCs that contain non-significant eclipse candidates, the ensemble of EBs can be studied on a statistical ground using the two-Gaussian model parameters. For illustration purposes, we present the distribution of projected eccentricities as a function of orbital period for the OGLE-III set of EBs in the LMC, as well as the distribution of their primary versus secondary eclipse widths.Comment: 20 pages, 29 figures. Submitted to A&

An efficient semiparametric maxima estimator of the extremal index

The extremal index $\theta$, a measure of the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary process, plays an important role in extreme value analyses. We estimate $\theta$ semiparametrically, using the relationship between the distribution of block maxima and the marginal distribution of a process to define a semiparametric model. We show that these semiparametric estimators are simpler and substantially more efficient than their parametric counterparts. We seek to improve efficiency further using maxima over sliding blocks. A simulation study shows that the semiparametric estimators are competitive with the leading estimators. An application to sea-surge heights combines inferences about $\theta$ with a standard extreme value analysis of block maxima to estimate marginal quantiles.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. Minor edits made to version 1 prior to journal publication. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10687-015-0221-

Search for high-amplitude δ Scuti and RR Lyrae stars in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 using principal component analysis

We propose a robust principal component analysis framework for the exploitation of multiband photometric measurements in large surveys. Period search results are improved using the time-series of the first principal component due to its optimized signal-to-noise ratio. The presence of correlated excess variations in the multivariate time-series enables the detection of weaker variability. Furthermore, the direction of the largest variance differs for certain types of variable stars. This can be used as an efficient attribute for classification. The application of the method to a subsample of Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 data yielded 132 high-amplitude δ Scuti variables. We also found 129 new RR Lyrae variables, complementary to the catalogue of Sesar et al., extending the halo area mapped by Stripe 82 RR Lyrae stars towards the Galactic bulge. The sample also comprises 25 multiperiodic or Blazhko RR Lyrae star

The all-sky GEOS RR Lyr survey with the TAROT telescopes. Analysis of the Blazhko effect

We used the GEOS database to study the Blazhko effect of galactic RRab stars. The database is continuously enriched by maxima supplied by amateur astronomers and by a dedicated survey by means of the two TAROT robotic telescopes. The same value of the Blazhko period is observed at different values of the pulsation periods and different values of the Blazhko periods are observed at the same value of the pulsation period. There are clues suggesting that the Blazhko effect is changing from one cycle to the next. The secular changes in the pulsation and Blazhko periods of Z CVn are anticorrelated. The diagrams of magnitudes against phases of the maxima clearly show that the light curves of Blazhko variables can be explained as modulated signals, both in amplitude and in frequency. The closed curves describing the Blazhko cycles in such diagrams have different shapes, reflecting the phase shifts between the epochs of the brightest maximum and the maximum O-C. Our sample shows that both clockwise and anticlockwise directions are possible for similar shapes. The improved observational knowledge of the Blazhko effect, in addition to some peculiarities of the light curves, have still to be explained by a satisfactory physical mechanism.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomical Journa

Empowerment and satisfaction in a multinational study of routine clinical practice

Objective: Decision-making between mental health clinicians and patients is under-researched. We tested whether mental health patients are more satisfied with a decision made (i) using their preferred decision-making style and (ii) with a clinician with the same decision-making style preference. Method: As part of the CEDAR Study (ISRCTN75841675), a convenience sample of 445 patients with severe mental illness from six European countries were assessed for desired clinical decision-making style (rated by patients and paired clinicians), decision-specific experienced style and satisfaction. Results: Patients who experienced more involvement in decision-making than they desired rated higher satisfaction (OR = 2.47, P = 0.005, 95% CI 1.32–4.63). Decisions made with clinicians whose decision-making style preference was for more active involvement than the patient preference were rated with higher satisfaction (OR = 3.17, P = 0.003, 95% CI 1.48–6.82). Conclusion: More active involvement in decision-making than the patient stated as desired was associated with higher satisfaction. A clinical orientation towards empowering, rather than shared, decision-making may maximise satisfaction